RSS

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

Posted on by
Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper
 

The Trump tariff mayhem has significantly impacted the Canadian economy and financial markets. Since the February tariff threats and the on-again, off-again nature of the policy changes, consumer and business confidence have tumbled while inflation expectations have surged.

 
 

Short- and long-term interest rates have increased considerably as bond vigilantes have sold US Treasury bonds for fear of mounting inflation. Another big boost to interest rates is the vast and rapidly growing surge in the US government's net federal debt to GDP ratio, which will only rise sharply further with the current tax bill under debate in the US House of Representatives.

China has been a primary net seller of US Government bonds, increasing interest rates. No wonder the Fed is reluctant to ease monetary policy, and US rates are at record spreads vis-à-vis Canada.

Canadian labour markets have weakened considerably, and the US-tariff-related layoffs have already begun. The jobless rate rose to 6.9% in April, portending a coming recession in this year's second and third quarters.

Economic and financial uncertainty has slowed Canadian housing activity, particularly in the GTA and GVA. However, the increased inventory of unsold homes in much of the country has driven down prices. This creates a buying opportunity for many would-be purchasers.